modular DC · cost model · ROI
The Real Cost of a Modular Megawatt: Prefab vs US-Built
Our turnkey cost model prices a containerized data center per MW of IT load, China-prefabricated and US-landed, across three GPU generations. All figures in USD, October 2026.
The headline table
| Tier | Landed cost / MW | vs US greenfield $10M/MW | Static payback | 10-yr NPV @ 11% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hopper (H100/H200, air-cooled) | $3.30M | 3.0× | 2.2 yr | +$4.6M |
| Blackwell (GB200/GB300, liquid) | $4.06M | 2.5× | 2.6 yr | +$3.9M |
| Rubin (800 VDC, full liquid) | $4.94M | 2.0× | 3.2 yr | +$3.0M |
(Revenue assumption: ~$200/kW/month. Model inputs are adjustable — every estimated figure is flagged in the workbook.)
Two patterns matter more than the absolute numbers:
- The arbitrage multiple narrows as density rises (3.0× → 2.0×). Rack power capex grows faster than any other line item across generations — 48/54V busbar (≤30 kW/rack) → GB200 ~120 kW → GB300 132–140 kW → Rubin 800 VDC at 190–230 kW/rack. Power is eating the savings.
- White-label and certification costs are a separate line ($120k/MW), never blended into equipment unit cost. Export projects get “forced” into foreign-brand partnerships (ABB/Schneider badges on Chinese hardware) — more on that in Behind the Badge.
The honest counterpoint
We’d be lying if we stopped at the headline. At unit-price level, China’s prefab landed cost ($3.30–4.94M/MW) sits in the same ballpark as US AI-infrastructure build-cost estimates ($3.1–3.5M/MW). “Half the price” does not hold on unit cost alone.
The prefab edge is delivery certainty: 128–144-week transformer queues, spot premiums, and the delay tax (next article) — not the sticker price. Tariff treatment (301 whole-unit rate) remains the biggest unpriced variable in the model. Anyone quoting you a multiple without a tariff line is selling, not modeling.
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